By CMR of Xiamen University
This booklet is a quarterly forecast and research document at the chinese language financial system. it really is released two times a yr and offers ongoing end result from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic version (CQMM),” a examine venture on the middle for Macroeconomic study (CMR) at Xiamen college. in accordance with the CQMM version, the study workforce forecast significant macroeconomic symptoms for the following eight quarters, together with the speed of GDP development, the CPI, fixed-asset funding, resident intake and overseas exchange. even as it specializes in simulation of present macroeconomic guidelines in China. as well as aiding readers comprehend China’s financial development and coverage advisor, this ebook has 3 major ambitions: to aid readers comprehend China’s monetary functionality; to forecast the most macroeconomic signs for the following eight quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.
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Additional resources for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2014
In the past 3 years, the micro-stimulus and targeted easing policies mainly concentrated on infrastructure investment and government-subsidized housing: to launch infrastructure investment projects like railway, highway, municipality, energy, environmental protection and water conservancy, where private capital participation was encouraged; to boost the construction of government-subsidized housing, the reconstruction of the rundown urban areas. (3) For each year, the starting time of micro-stimulus policies had to be shifted to an earlier time, from the third quarter in 2012 to the middle of 2013, and then to the second quarter of 2014.
Essentially, it is the result of the “investment-driven, export-led” growth mode formed in the past decades. The outbreak of international financial crisis has damaged the “export-led” engine of China’s economic growth. Meanwhile, the decline in GDP growth after international financial crisis has inhibited the residential real income growth, though the residential real income had not kept pace with high growth of GDP before the crisis. Together with the low consume marginal propensity of residents, the “residential consumption” as growth engine was hard to have an effect on China’s economy.
However, there will be a big fluctuation in the growth of the residential consumption in 2015. 14 % in the fourth quarter. 5 6 Calculated at the current price. Calculated at the current price. 12 Fig. 8 Growth rate of consumption (year-on-year basis) (Note: “CON_D_C” denotes the growth rate of residents’ consumption and “RETAIL” denotes the growth rate of retail sales of total consumer goods at current price) The growth in total retail sales of social consumer goods7 will increase gradually in the second half of 2014.