Building Security in the Persian Gulf by Robert E. Hunter

By Robert E. Hunter

The U.S. needs to be certain how most sensible to advertise long term safeguard and balance within the Persian Gulf quarter whereas trying to lessen the dangers and prices imposed by way of its function as an everlasting nearby strength. the writer analyzes Iraq's destiny, the function of Iran, uneven threats, nearby reassurance, nearby tensions, and the jobs of different exterior actors. He then units out standards and specifications for a brand new neighborhood protection constitution.

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It is a very serious, important matter. S. analysts unawares, as did both the pace of the Cold War’s end and the extent to which the Soviet Union, its suzerainty in Central and Eastern Europe, and European communism collapsed. 5 This analysis will focus on setting parameters for a regional security structure designed to have a high degree of likelihood of covering the key factors in play. Surprises, to the extent possible, are accounted for in the realm of the lesser included. Accounting for surprises in the structure and operation of any system of security relating to the region of the Persian Gulf and the broader Middle East is made even more difficult because some principal actors are not states and do not conduct themselves according to any (or, at least, to a critical mass) of the norms and expectations of state behavior.

Indeed, this last factor could have a dramatic, perhaps decisive, impact on a number of calculations made in this work. S. and Iranian interests are likely to be compatible, though unlikely to be congruent. S. policy toward Iran. Yet, concerning the principal concern voiced by outsiders about Iran’s policies and actions, what if the country does develop nuclear weapons? 7 One almost certain consequence, within the Persian Gulf region itself, would be the desire of most or even all regional Arab states to gain some form of assurance from the United States against an Iranian military attack or even a lesser Iranian challenge, including efforts to exploit a nuclear capability diplomatically.

S. security commitments. CHAPTER TWO The Basic Framework A basic purpose of this work is to determine what, as it reshapes its attitudes, policies, approaches, and engagements regarding the Persian Gulf region, the United States can usefully do, along with others in and out of the region, to develop, foster, and implement a new security structure for the region. S. policies and activities and those of others. Ideally, the security structure would allow the United States to be able to promote and achieve its long-term interests—and those of its friends and allies—at a lower cost, both human and material; with less risk of conflict than would otherwise be true; and with lower opportunity costs, thereby increasing the United States’ capacity to devote time, attention, and resources to other challenges in the world.

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